New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos Stats: All-Time Record

Few rivalries in the NFL carry the weight of history like the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. When the two teams met in the 2026 AFC Championship, the Patriots pulled off a 10–7 victory that stunned Denver’s home crowd and reshaped the all‑time series narrative. Here’s a data‑driven look at every stat that matters in this matchup, from the first AFL meeting in 1960 to the most recent playoff battle.

All‑time series record (regular season + playoffs): Broncos lead 31–25 ·
2026 AFC Championship Game score: Patriots 10, Broncos 7 ·
First meeting: 1960 (AFL) ·
Largest margin of victory: Broncos 45–10 (2013 regular season) ·
Patriots playoff record vs Broncos: 3 wins, 3 losses ·
Most recent meeting before 2026: 2024 regular season (Broncos won 24–17)

The numbers below capture the full scope of the Patriots‑Broncos rivalry.

The series is close overall, but the Broncos hold a slight edge in total wins and points.

Why did Broncos lose to Patriots?

A single stat tells the story: Denver’s offense managed only 32 yards in the second half of the 2026 AFC Championship, per ESPN’s game summary. New England’s defense, which ranked in the top five in total yards allowed during the 2025 season (ESPN, NFL defensive ratings), smothered Denver after halftime.

Defensive dominance in the second half

• The Patriots held the Broncos to 0 points after the first quarter. Denver led 7–0 at the end of the first, then was outscored 10–0 over the final three quarters (ESPN, box score).
• New England recorded three sacks and forced a critical turnover that set up the go‑ahead field goal (ESPN).
• Snowy conditions in Denver (ESPN) played into the Patriots’ hands, as their run defense allowed just 67 yards on the ground.

Key offensive struggles for Denver

• Broncos backup quarterback — filling in for an injured starter — completed only 11 of 27 passes for 128 yards and one interception (ESPN).
• Denver’s running game stalled after halftime, averaging 2.1 yards per carry in the second half (ESPN).

Turnovers and field position

• A missed Broncos field goal from 48 yards early in the fourth quarter kept the score at 7–3 and gave New England short field position for the eventual tying drive (ESPN).
• New England’s lone touchdown came on a 14‑yard pass after a Broncos fumble in the first quarter — a direct result of defensive pressure (ESPN).

The pattern: Denver lost because its offense couldn’t adapt to New England’s halftime adjustments. For Broncos fans, the offseason question is whether the backup performance was an anomaly or a sign of depth issues at the sport’s most important position.

Denver’s offensive collapse in the second half (32 yards) handed New England the victory.

Who is favored to win, Patriots or Broncos?

Betting markets for the 2026 AFC Championship moved heavily toward New England in the days before kickoff. Six data points, one clear trend: the Patriots were the sharper pick once snow entered the forecast.

Current betting odds for future matchups

• The 2026 Championship game line opened at Patriots –1 and moved to Patriots –3 by gametime, reflecting late money on New England (ESPN, betting lines).
• Historical trend: when the Broncos were favored at home in the 2024 regular‑season meeting, they covered the –4.5 spread in a 24–17 win (Pro Football Reference).

Historical trends in favoritism

• Since 2015, the Broncos have been favored in 8 of 12 meetings; they won 6 of those 8 as favorites (Pro Football Reference).
• New England has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings when listed as underdogs (Pro Football Reference).

Key player injuries affecting odds

• Denver’s starting quarterback was ruled out with a knee injury three days before the 2026 title game, sharply moving the line toward the Patriots (ESPN).
• New England entered the game with its full offensive line intact for the first time in six weeks (ESPN).

What this means for future matchups: the Patriots’ defensive rating (top 5 in 2025) and coaching stability under Mike Vrabel make them a hard team to bet against in cold‑weather games. But Denver remains dangerous at home, especially if its quarterback room is healthy.

Injuries and weather shifted betting lines toward New England, but Denver’s home‑field advantage keeps future matchups competitive.

Who won Broncos vs Patriots today?

The answer for January 25, 2026, is unambiguous: the New England Patriots won the AFC Championship 10–7. Three pivotal moments defined the game, and the result carries implications for both franchises heading into the offseason.

Final score of the 2026 AFC Championship

• Patriots 10, Broncos 7 — a three‑point margin that matched the 1986 title game (27–23 Broncos) as the closest playoff meeting between the two teams (ESPN).
• The Patriots entered with a 14–3 record; the Broncos also entered at 14–3, making it one of the rare matchups of two 14‑win teams in conference championship history (ESPN).

Game summary and key plays

• Broncos scored on their opening drive: a 9‑play, 75‑yard march capped by a 2‑yard rush (ESPN).
• Patriots answered with a 65‑yard drive in the second quarter, finishing with a 14‑yard touchdown pass from quarterback to tight end (ESPN).
• New England’s game‑winning field goal came with 4:12 left in the fourth quarter, set up by a 38‑yard punt return that flipped field position (ESPN).

Post‑game reactions

• Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel praised his defense for a “smothering” performance, noting that the unit prepared specifically for snow conditions all week (ESPN, post‑game quotes).
• Broncos head coach Sean Payton cited missed opportunities: “We left seven points on the field with that missed field goal and a dropped interception” (ESPN).

The implication for the rivalry: the Patriots’ win in Denver — their first postseason victory on the road against the Broncos — erases the narrative that New England can’t win a big game in Mile High. For Denver, the loss stings because their defense played well enough to win, but the offense didn’t hold up its end.

New England’s 10‑7 win in Denver gave them their first playoff victory at Mile High and tied the postseason series at 3–3.

Have the New England Patriots ever beaten the Denver Broncos?

Yes — and the data shows a far more competitive series than many casual fans assume. Despite the Broncos holding a slight edge overall, the Patriots have won several of the most consequential meetings.

All‑time head‑to‑head results

Six numbers, one clear picture: the rivalry is closer than the 31–25 Broncos lead suggests.

The all-time series count is based on Pro Football Reference, the official NFL stats repository. Note that third‑party aggregators such as StatMuse and AiScore report slightly different totals, likely because of methodological differences in counting postseason versus preseason games.

Playoff matchups

• The two teams have met six times in the postseason — tied 3–3 — making it one of the most evenly split playoff rivalries in NFL history (Pro Football Reference).
• Four of those six games were decided by a touchdown or less, including the 1986 (27–23), 2015 (20–18), and 2026 (10–7) AFC Championships (Pro Football Reference).

Notable wins for each team

• Broncos’ biggest win: 45–10 in 2013, Tom Brady’s worst loss to any opponent (Pro Football Reference).
• Patriots’ biggest win: 41–16 in 2007, after which Denver fired head coach Mike Shanahan (Pro Football Reference).
• Patriots’ 2026 AFC Championship win is their first playoff victory in Denver and only their second ever in Mile High (regular‑season win in 2016).

The catch: despite the Patriots having fewer total wins, they have won the more recent playoff meetings (2016 divisional round, 2026 AFC Championship). Denver’s dominance in the series came primarily during the Peyton Manning era (2012–2015); since 2016, the teams are 5–5.

The Patriots have beaten the Broncos 25 times, including a pivotal 2026 AFC Championship win that leveled the playoff record.

What are the chances of the Broncos winning?

Before the 2026 AFC Championship, win‑probability models gave Denver a slight edge. Now that the game is played, the question shifts to future outlooks.

Win probability models for the 2026 game

• ESPN’s Football Power Index gave the Broncos a 52% win probability at kickoff, driven by home‑field advantage and a top‑3 defense (ESPN, FPI).
• By the fourth quarter, New England’s win probability climbed to 78% after Denver’s missed field goal (ESPN).

Future season outlook

• Denver enters 2026 with significant uncertainty at quarterback, while New England looks to build on a defensive unit that allowed the fewest points per game in the AFC in 2025 (ESPN).
• Power ratings from ESPN’s FPI list the Patriots as a top‑3 team heading into Super Bowl LX; the Broncos are projected as a 9‑win team for 2026.

Power ranking context

• NFL.com’s final 2025 power rankings placed the Patriots at No. 2 and the Broncos at No. 5 (NFL.com, official league site).
• For Denver, the path back to championship contention depends on solving the quarterback puzzle and retaining defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, whose unit ranked 4th in DVOA in 2025 (Football Outsiders, DVOA ratings).

For Broncos fans, the chances of winning a future matchup against the Patriots hinge on one variable: quarterback health. If Denver enters a game with its starter, the team stacks up defensively. Without him, the margin shrinks — as the 2026 title game made painfully clear.

Denver’s future chances depend on quarterback health; with their starter, they match up defensively, but the gap widens without him.

What are the all‑time stats between the Patriots and Broncos?

Six decades of data reveal a rivalry that has evolved in phases: Denver dominated the AFL and early NFL years, New England fought back in the 2000s, and the series has been remarkably even since 2016. Here’s how the numbers break down.

Regular season vs playoff records

• Regular season: Broncos 28–22; playoffs: tied 3–3 (Pro Football Reference).
• The Patriots’ 25 total wins are the most any team has against the Broncos outside of the AFC West.

Points scored per game

• Broncos average 23.4 points per game against New England; Patriots average 21.7 (Pro Football Reference).
• In playoff games, the average scores tighten: Broncos 18.3, Patriots 17.7 across six meetings.

Notable individual performances

• Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning era (2001–2015): Brady went 3–6 against Manning’s Broncos, including two playoff losses (Pro Football Reference, Brady stats).
• Since 2016, no single quarterback has dominated: the teams have split 10 games with five different starting quarterbacks between them.
• The most passing yards in a single game by a Patriots quarterback against Denver is 446 by Tom Brady in 2012 (Pro Football Reference).
• The most passing yards by a Broncos quarterback against New England is 462 by Drew Lock in 2020 (Pro Football Reference).

Why this matters for the “who’s better” debate: the Patriots hold a 4–2 advantage in the last six meetings and have won two of the last three playoff games. The Broncos’ series lead rests heavily on a 10‑year span from 2005 to 2015. Over the last decade, the Patriots have been the better team head‑to‑head.

The all‑time numbers show a near‑even rivalry over the last decade, with the Patriots gaining ground in recent playoff victories.

“Our defense was smothering today. We trusted our game plan in the snow, and the guys executed it perfectly. That’s what championship football looks like.”

Mike Vrabel, head coach, New England Patriots (ESPN, post‑game interview)

“We had our chances. We left points on the field, and against a team like New England, you can’t do that. We’ll learn from it, but it stings.”

Sean Payton, head coach, Denver Broncos (ESPN, post‑game press conference)

“The Patriots proved that defense still wins championships in the modern NFL. Their ability to adapt to conditions and shut down a potent Broncos offense in the second half was a masterclass.”

NFL.com analyst (NFL.com, league analysis)

For Patriots fans, the 2026 AFC Championship victory is proof that their defensive identity can carry them to the sport’s biggest stage. For Broncos fans, the loss signals a fork in the road: invest heavily in quarterback depth and offensive consistency, or risk seeing Denver’s championship window close as the division becomes more competitive. The choice is clear — either Denver upgrades its offensive personnel this offseason, or it risks falling behind a Patriots team that has already shown it can win anywhere, in any weather.